The LDP leadership election

It all feels rather odd to an Englishman used to a fairly even fight between two rival parties (Conservative and Labour) with one outrider adding some sport to the whole contest (Liberal Democrats). Three candidates for leader of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party, the winner automatically becoming Prime Minister; the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) will no doubt put up a good fight, but let’s face it, the chances of them actually winning a majority on the Diet are slimmer than the average cat-walk model.

Abe, Aso and Tanigaki were on News 23 tonight with Chikushi Tetsuya obviously enjoying trying to make them all feel as uncomfortable as possible. To be honest I struggle to follow the details of such political debates in Japanese, though I do my best. I did, however, get a bit of a feeling for Japanese politics. In the first place, though this is probably something to do with them all belonging to the same political party, they were so respectful of each other, taking their turn to speak politely - never butting in to counter-argue or get one over on their opponent like our politicians in the UK are expected to do. We like a bit more excitement on our news programmes, especially on the eve of an important election. The whole debate felt a little perfunctory in fact, as if even the media couldn’t manage to summon up much interest in such a foregone conclusion.

At one point the presenters were obviously running out of time and had to cut to a commercial before Tanigaki got his say. The screen faded to the commercial break with Tanigaki’s plaintive ‘Don’t I get to speak now?’ left hanging in the air…

While Aso and Tanigaki produced fairly detailed manifestos - a practice that only started a couple of years ago in Japan - Abe’s clear lead in the popularity stakes meant he could get away with a very brief one. Though, to be fair, he did write a book (”Towards a Beautiful Country”) which gives us a chance to understand his position a little. Abe seems to have been brought up in a very politically-active family and it probably feels quite natural to him that he should have made his way to the very top of the greasy pole. To start with his popularity will translate into a hefty wad of political capital, but unless he can make visible progress with regard to the big issues - relations with China and Korea, economic growth, educational reform, the winners-and-losers society, etc.. - the Japanese people will soon exhaust their store of patience.

It is said that a people get the leaders they deserve, and I can’t help feeling this is true in Japan as much as anywhere else; to make a more beautiful country Abe will have to appeal directly to the hearts and minds of ordinary people. And he will need to deal severely with corruption and cosy webs of vested interests - as these must be the main cause of popular apathy when it comes to national politics.

Largely thanks to Koizumi’s adept handling of his image in the media, voter turnout improved fairly significantly in the last election; Abe will no doubt be hoping that he can further stimulate people’s interest in the political world. But he has a mountain of problems to address and the public perception of the worthiness of political representatives is probably not at the top of his list of priorities. In any case, improvements in the public image of politicians will only come as by-products of the successful implementation of well-thought-out and broadly-supported policies.

Abe is surely doomed to fail in this regard - I don’t believe the Japanese actually expect their politicians to ’succeed’, any more than the English do. Accepting a new leader is always a rather anti-climactic affair and, more than anything else, it comes down to the question of ‘How long can he hang in there?’.

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